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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 January 15
CAN BULKER CONVERSIONS SPOIL THE TANKER MARKET'S PARTY? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Oversupply of tonnage has always been in the back of the head of ship owners when it comes to taking advantage of favorable market conditions. As s ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CAPE MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LOW DEMAND AND LOW COMMODITY PRICES
Handy
Supramax rates are heading south with slipping rates all across the block. USG activity is slow with mid-week levels in the mid 8.000s, Fea ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
With most traders having returned to action from year end festivities, we have already seen signs of activity in the specialized product markets. L ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
CAPES CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD MOVEMENT LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market displayed a mirror performance of that of the week prior, with the Capesize market correcting further upwards and ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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