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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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