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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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