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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 October 14
CAPE'S STRONG PERFORMANCE PUSHES BDI INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 26.27 pct and closed at 1192 points week and week. The Cape size performance has pushed up BDI and Cape size index ...
Friday, 24 October 14
WEEKLY U.S COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7% FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 18
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 23 October 14
THE BEARS, HOWEVER, STILL CRY; FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? - FEARNLEYS
Handy
"We experience a typical oversupply of ships in the Atlantic which causing rates to slide. In the USG it is just enough cargoes to kee ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
CAPESIZE MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed on the red for yet another week although following Friday sentiment has started to improve on the back of ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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