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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 October 14
INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES ARE AT LOWEST LEVEL; COAL STOCKS AT INDIAN POWER PLANTS ARE ALSO AT LOWEST LEVEL
International coal prices as well as coal freights are falling and reaching to its lowest levels. According to PTI, fuel stockpiles at the thermal ...
Friday, 17 October 14
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP BY 3.6% WEEK - ON - WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 17 October 14
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S OUTLOOK NOW SHIFTING TO A LESS PROMISING ONE, SHIP PRICES EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SOON - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
China’s and other Asian countries’ return to the dry bulk market last week, didn’t trigger the hoped support towards the dry bulk ...
Thursday, 16 October 14
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 490K MT OF LCV COAL FOR 1Q 2015
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 490,000 Metric Tons (MT) of LCV (Sub) Bitumino ...
Thursday, 16 October 14
PANAMAX OWNERS RECEIVE A PREMIUM FOR GOING TO INDIA VIA INDONESIA - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Handy/Supra market continues to slide in both hemispheres, said Fearnleys AS in its latest week report. In the Atlantic we see rates co ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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