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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 28 October 14
SGX'S FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q1' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 68.07 ON 24 OCT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.65 (-0.96%) month over month and increased US$ 1.79 (+2. ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.68% LOWER MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week.
The swap has lost US ...
Monday, 27 October 14
GOVT PROMISES TO EASE LICENSING PROCEDURES IN MINING SECTOR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to simplify the complicated licensing procedures i ...
Monday, 27 October 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.10 LESSER THAN Q4' 14 CLOSING OF $ 53.27 PMT
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.43 (-2.61%) month over month and increased US$ 0.05 (+0.09% ...
Monday, 27 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS PERFORMED POSITIVE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.68 (-2.55%) month over month and increased US$ 0.87 (+1.3 ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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