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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 October 14
INDIA'S DIESEL DEREGULATION POSITIVE FOR OIL COMPANIES - FITCH
The Indian government's 18 October decision to deregulate diesel prices will have a positive effect on the national oil marketing companies tha ...
Tuesday, 21 October 14
LOW DEMAND PUTTING COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost on day, week and month.
The swap has lost US$ 1.57 (-3.04%) month on month ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FAILED TO PERFORM POSITIVE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 3.04 (-4.57%) month over month and US$ 1.75 (-2.68%) week o ...
Sunday, 19 October 14
LOW DEMAND PUSHES DOWN COAL FREIGHT RATES; VOLATILITY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened including BDI except for Panamax index.
The BDI was down by1.70 pct and clsoed at 944 points ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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