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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 31 October 14
BUKIT ASAM'S NET PROFIT ROSE 27.42% FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY - SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: Publicly listed coal miner Bukit Asam reported solid profits in the first nine months of 2014 year.
Coal miner Bukit Asam manage ...
Friday, 31 October 14
U.S PRODUCED AROUND 19.3 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 30 October 14
COAL & GRAINS SUPPORT PANAMAX AND IRON ORE SUPPORTS CAPES
Handy
The Atlantic market has been flat this week. Rates are up about US$ 200 from last week on the TA´s, but the volumes are about the sam ...
Thursday, 30 October 14
DOES A LOU ARBITRATION AGREEMENT FOR THE UNDERLYING CARGO CLAIM COMPLETELY REPLACE THE BILL OF LADING ARBITRATION CLAUSE? - INCE &CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the context of cargo claims brought under four bills of lading, the Commercial Court has recently considered whether a ...
Wednesday, 29 October 14
GOOD REASON WHY Q4 CAPESIZE OUTLOOK WAS SO BULLISH AT START OF THE YEAR - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: There was good reason why so many analysts' capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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