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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 November 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.09 (-1.99%) month over month and increased US$ 0.31 (+0.58% ...
Monday, 03 November 14
ADARO PRODUCED 41.90MT OF COAL FOR FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2014
COALspot.com: Adaro’s coal production in the third quarter reached 14.03 Mt, a 2% increase compared to the same period of last year. Accordin ...
Monday, 03 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 2014 DELIVERY LOST 2.80% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery has decreased US$ 1.86 (-2.80%) month over month and increased US$ 0.37 ( ...
Monday, 03 November 14
INDONESIAN'S COAL EXPORTS JUMP IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
Sunday, 02 November 14
CAPE INDEX WAS UP 46.65% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI and Cape index continued the strong upward trend this week. The BDI was up 19.80 pct and Cape index was up by 46.65 per ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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