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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 November 14
U.S. PRODUCED 85.60 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER, UP 2.88% M-O-M
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 06 November 14
THE ATLANTIC HAS REMAINED STRONG WITH A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF NEW CARGOES
Handy
This week has continued its slow trend in both hemispheres and even though rates are a bit up w-o-w it is not a clear sign for any improvem ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
CAPESIZE SEGMENT ENJOYED FIRMING RATES ACROSS BOTH BASINS
Following a fantastic week in terms of rate performance for Capes, the Dry Bulk market managed to note another positive weekly closing, which stron ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compar ...
Tuesday, 04 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR 2015 DELIVERIES SHOW A WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week, the trend was same as las ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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