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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 10 November 14
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1' 15 CLOSING PRICE OF US$ 49.58 ON LAST FRIDAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost just US$ ...
Monday, 10 November 14
SGX'S API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.44 ON 7 NOV, LOST 4.08% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.78 (-4.08%) month over month and US$ 1.41 (-2.11%) w ...
Monday, 10 November 14
MOZAMBIQUE SIGNED CONTRACT WITH ETA STAR OF UAE FOR OPEN CAST COAL MINE IN TETE - AIM
- ETA Star to build slurry pipeline over the 600 kilometers to Beira in Mozambique to transport coal.
- The viability studies show the presence o ...
Monday, 10 November 14
YEAR 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SHOWS A WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 3.74 (-5.63%) month over month and US$ 2.19 (+3.37%) we ...
Sunday, 09 November 14
CAPE INDEX UP 3.06%; PANAMAX INDEX FELL 4.05%
COALspot.com: The BDI was almost at same levels compared to last week closing or just increased 0.77 pct from last week. The BDI was closed at 1437 ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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