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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 November 14
PANAMAX: WITNESSED A FAIRLY STABLE MARKET IN THE ATLANTIC
COALspot.com: Despite the fact that the Dry Bulk market noted another weekly increase, clouds of uncertainty returned mid-week onwards, as the mini ...
Wednesday, 12 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
COALspot.com: The fight continues between the low-cost iron ore producers and the big three: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. We are moving into a ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
FACING CHALLENGES AND MEETING OPPORTUNITIES - INTERNATIONAL EPC CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION
Press Release: SKYCONNECTION and TRANSEVENT, which is fully supported by the Institution of Engineers Indonesia and Ministry of Industry of the Rep ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.65 FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery decreased US$ 2.83 (-5.10%) month over month and US$ 1.35 (-2.50%) week ove ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S OCTOBER COAL SHIPMENTS SLIPPED 7.40% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,115.7 mil ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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