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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 November 14
MORE NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA TO HELP STABILISE CHINA PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings has said possible additional natural gas supplies from Russia's OAO Gazprom to China via the Altai pipeline would h ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
SLOWER AND LOWER HAS BEEN THE TREND OF THE PANAMAX IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We are experiencing an oversupply of tonnage in the Atlantic which is out numbering the amount of cargoes, Fearnleys broker says in its lat ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S REBOUND HINGES ON IRON ORE OVERSUPPLY ISSUES MOVING FORWARD - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
“One man’s benefit, is another man’s demise” is a phrase which can be used to describe today’s situation in the dry b ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
COAL MINISTER WANTS INDIA TO STOP COAL IMPORTS IN TWO OR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: India to ramp up coal production to a billion tonnes by 2019 from its current level of 490 million tones. According to Power and Coal ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
MODERN DRY BULK SHIPS' PRICES START FIRMING UP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While the main story of the past few weeks has been the rebound of the dry bulk market, which has been a result of increased Chinese iron ore impor ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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