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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES FREE FALL; SLUMPS TO 69-MONTH LOW
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in November. HBA for t ...
Monday, 17 November 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 52.75
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.77 (-3.25%) month over month and US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) day ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.73 (-2.67%) month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0.16%) da ...
Sunday, 16 November 14
THE BDI LOST 12.59% WEEK ON WEEK; THE BCI LOST 19.95%
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 12.59 percent to 1256 point week on week on Friday 14 November. All the segments were also most down this week. The cape ...
Friday, 14 November 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 08
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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