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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 November 14
VALEMAX DEAL TO DETERMINE DRY BULK MARKET'S FATE - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Vale’s accord to sell and lease four Valemax vessels to COSCO might have negative repercussions on dry bulk freight rates. Vale has committed ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DELIVERY Q2' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 49.55; DOWN 4.10% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 66.31; UP 1.33% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has gained US$ 0.27 (+0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.87 (+1.33%) week ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
CHEAP OIL PRICES COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL OIL EXPORTING MAP - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tanker owners have enjoyed a rather healthy 2014, but as the year draws to a close, the fall of oil prices is bound to reshape traditional, as well ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SKULD ISSUES URGENT NOTICE ON BANKRUPTCY OF OW BUNKER A/S
Further to the Association’s advices of 7 November 2014, more information has come to light with respect to the potential impact and scale of ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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