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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 November 14
HANDY: INDO ROUNDS ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF US$ 10K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
In the Atlantic we have experienced firmer rates this week much lead by the grain activity out of USG. Vsls open in the USG can achieve in ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS INCREASES ON THE BACK OF HEIGHTENED FREIGHT RATE MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of favorable market conditions through the acquisition of more dry bulk carriers. According to shipbroker ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
INDONESIA FUEL-PRICE RISE A CLEAR, POSITIVE REFORM SIGNAL - FITCH
COALspot.com: Indonesia's hike of more than 30% in administered fuel prices, announced on 17 November, provides a clear, positive signal of the ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
CAPES WERE UNDER PRESSURE; LOST 20% WITHIN A WEEK
COALspot.com: " The negative environment in which the week prior ended, marked this past week as well, which closed off on Friday noting the f ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - BY KATERINA RESTIS
The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been declared as a worldwide health emergency by the World Health Organization and has had a great im ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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