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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 22 November 14
THE FALL IN BUNKER PRICES REDUCE FUEL COSTS SIGNIFICANTLY - BIMCO, PETER SAND
For a ship that burns 24 tonnes of fuel per day while steaming, fuel costs are reduced by as much as USD 1 million a year if current price level st ...
Saturday, 22 November 14
DRY BULKERS NEWBUILDING DELIVERIES REACHED 11.8 MILLION DWT DURING THIRD QUARTER, NET FLEET GROWTH FOR 2014 TO REACH 5% - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has rebounded since its less than impressive performance since the start of the year, but overall, third quarter figures could ...
Friday, 21 November 14
BUMI ENTERS INTO CONDITIONAL SALE & PURCHASE AGREEMENT TO SELL FBS STAKE
COALspot.com: PT Bumi Resources Tbk, one of the Indonesia's largest coal producers confirms that it has executed a Conditional Sale and Purchas ...
Friday, 21 November 14
U.S LAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a pot ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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