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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 November 14
CHOPPY WATERS IN DRY BULK - SGX
COALspot.com: Dry bulk freight rates have experienced a sharp rise in volatility in recent weeks as bulk commodity supply has ramped up, said SGX i ...
Monday, 24 November 14
Q1 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.73
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.73 on 21 November after losing US$ 0.40 (-0.75%) month ove ...
Monday, 24 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: Q2' 15 COAL SWAPS CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 0.63 (-0.99%) month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0.19%) da ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
SPOT FREIGHT RATES IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 5.41 pct week on week and closed at 1,324 points on Friday. All the segments were up this week except Panamax index.&n ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS TO DROP BY 11% IN 2014 - ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: Italy’s steam coal imports expected to drop to 16 million tons in 2014 (-11% compared to 2013); coking coal imports to plunge t ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
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