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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past year ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 49.55
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.12 (-0.24%) ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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