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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 November 14
NEW BIMCO CLAUSE AIMS TO REDUCE SUPPLIERS' RELIANCE ON SHIP ARREST FOR CHARTERERS' UNPAID BUNKERS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Ship owners can, on occasion, find themselves in the invidious position of suffering unexpected loss of hire due to a tim ...
Friday, 28 November 14
JSW ENERGY AND GRM RESOURCES JOIN GLOBALCOAL
COALspot.com: globalCOAL® announced yesterday that two new Market Members have joined its online coal trading platform. According globaCOAL&rsq ...
Thursday, 27 November 14
MINING SERVICES TAX SPIKED BY 233% - BISNIS INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Energy and Mineral Resources Department of Indonesia said the tax contribution from mining services sector in the 3rd Q 2014 ...
Thursday, 27 November 14
PANAMAX : EXPECTATION'S FOR A STRONG END OF YEAR RUSH, DISAPPEAR DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Handy
“We have experienced a firming market the last couple of weeks. More activity from cargo owners in the Atlantic and less available to ...
Wednesday, 26 November 14
OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED PANAMAX SEGMENT DOWN FOR ANOTHER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to reverse its course from the week prior and with the sole exception of the Panamax segment, we witnesse ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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