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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 02 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has lost U ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL Q1' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 49.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.4 ...
Monday, 01 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 52.50
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.50 on 28 November after losing US$ 1.20 (-2.23%) month ove ...
Monday, 01 December 14
Q2' 15 DELIVERY CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED 0.42% LOWER THAN Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.45 (-3.78%) month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1.06%) we ...
Sunday, 30 November 14
SUPRAMAX COAL FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA : FIRM
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 171 points and closed at 1153 points on Friday 28 November 2014. The Cape index also lost 887 points and closed at 2151 ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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