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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 December 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The dry bulk market seems unable to turn sentiment round and is still looking for direction. The BCI's 887-point free fall last week had an obv ...
Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KEY PLAYERS SHED NEW PERSPECTIVES ON COAL MARKETS
Press Release: Singapore’s ONLY and longest established Coal Trade event. Whilst Coal prices remain challenging, there is widespread consensu ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 585,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1'15
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids for the supply of 585,000 Metric Tons of coal. According to invitation, 5700 ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 1.4% WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) o ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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