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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 December 14
CHINESE SPECIAL STEEL MAKERS' RISK PROFILES MORE RESILIENT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says the risk profiles of Chinese makers of special steel, especially high-end products, are more like those of manufacturers and mor ...
Friday, 05 December 14
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED AROUND 905 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 04 December 14
CAPE MARKET IS DEVELOPING FROM BAD TO WORSE
Handy
The Atlantic market has been pretty stable and balanced this week, Fearnleys AS says in its latest weekly report.
The broker furt ...
Thursday, 04 December 14
DRY BULK MARKET; ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK
COALspot.com: For those who have been hoping to see alignment of freight direction across the Dry Bulk market, this must have been another disappoi ...
Wednesday, 03 December 14
PROGRESSING SMELTER PROJECTS IN INDONESIA
Press Release: Indonesia’s ban on ‘raw mineral export’ that was designed to encouraging downstream investment in mineral processi ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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