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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 December 14
GOVERMENT TO WITHDRAW CNC STATUS OVER SUSPECTED FLAWS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to review the clean and clear (CnC) status held by ...
Monday, 08 December 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SLIP W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.10 on 5 December after losing US$ 0.55 (-1.04%) month over ...
Sunday, 07 December 14
SUPRAMAX S8 ROUTE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index fell heavily week on week.
The BDI lost around14.83 pct within last five working day an ...
Saturday, 06 December 14
TANKER FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS COULD COME INTO PLAY IF VLCC RATES STAY AT CURRENT LEVEL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Contango: A phenomenon in commodities futures price curves where the delivery price of a futures contract is greater than the current price. With t ...
Saturday, 06 December 14
MUNDRA PORT MAKES HISTORY BY HANDLING THE LARGEST BULK CARRIER TO CALL ON WEST COAST OF INDIA
COALspot.com: Adani Ports & SEZ Ltd, India’s largest port developer and part of Adani Group, yesterday said its Mundra Port successf ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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