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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 December 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS, INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: As 2014 is coming to an end, we look back to what has happened during the year and notice that SnP activity has been particularly sof ...
Wednesday, 10 December 14
WORLD HARD COAL MARKET 2014: PRODUCTION AND TRADE STAGNATING, IMPORTS TO GERMANY AND EUROPE ON THE DECLINE
Press Release: German Coal Importers Association (VDKi) criticizes regulations ordering reduction of CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants as ...
Tuesday, 09 December 14
PRESSURE ON CHINA COAL MINERS TO CONTINUE DESPITE GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that Chinese coal mining companies will continue to be pressured by low prices, which will persist despite recent ...
Tuesday, 09 December 14
Q4' 2015, FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 49.02 W/E 5 DEC
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.2 ...
Tuesday, 09 December 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.84 (-2.91%) month over month and US$ 0.95 (-1.52%) we ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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