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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 December 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST $3.37 M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3,37 (-5.33%) month over month and US$ 1.58 (-2.57%) ...
Monday, 15 December 14
Q1' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 51.45 ON 12 DEC
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.74%) closed at US$ 51.45 on 12 December month over ...
Sunday, 14 December 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a measure of commodity-shipping costs, fell 12.12 pct to 863 points week ending 12 December 2014.
Th ...
Friday, 12 December 14
LIMITED TRADING AND AN OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED HANDY SIZE SHIPS TO DOWN IN USG
Handy
We have seen the TA spot market come down this week lead by limited trading and an oversupply of tonnage in the USG, Fearnleys said in its ...
Friday, 12 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 3.4% W/E DECEMBER 6
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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