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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.60 PMT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.18 (-0.27%) month on month ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CONTINUES ITS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.7 ...
Monday, 15 December 14
WILL TANKERS BENEFIT FROM REEMERGENCE OF FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market has been seeing high freight rates for some time now, riding on the back of low oil prices, which are boosting demand from develo ...
Monday, 15 December 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CRASHES THROUGH $65
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in December. HBA for t ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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