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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION REACHED APPROXIMATELY 19.8 MMST; UP 1.0% WOW
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HANDY: SOFTER TONE; PANAMAX: QUIET WEEK; CAPESIZE; PAINFUL WEEK
Handy
A softer tone for rates and volumes for the Supras, perhaps less apparent in the Pacific the last week before the season holidays and good ...
Thursday, 18 December 14
INDONESIA TO REVISE UP COAL OUTPUT TARGET TO 460 MILLION TONS IN 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian government has revised up its next year coal output forecast to 460 million tons from its previous forecast of 421 million ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
CAPES RATES SLIPPED BELOW $5,600/DAY, FELL 84% YOY
COALspot.com: In the very rare occurrence when the BCI stands below the BDI, words to describe market sentiment are probably poor, said Intermodal ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL SHANGHAI, SNP TEAM
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, we are all witness to the second hand market prices softening day by day. Any new deal surfacing t ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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