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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 23 December 14
SHIPOWNERS ARE FINALIZING MORE DEALS AS YEAR END COMES CLOSER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
With the 2014 year just a few days before waving goodbye, shipowners are looking to close their pending deals in both the newbuilding and S&P m ...
Monday, 22 December 14
Q2'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 0.30 LOWER THAN Q1'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.67 (-5.81%) month over month and US$ 0.35 (-0.58%) ...
Monday, 22 December 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS ARE HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.71 per MT (-3.24%) and closed at US$ 51.02 on 19 December month ...
Sunday, 21 December 14
PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA FALLS FURTHER
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index lost heavily week on week.
The BDI was down 6.95 percent week over week and closed at 8 ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HOW WILL LOWER BUNKER PRICES AFFECT THE SUBSTANTIAL OVERCAPACITY IN DRY BULK MARKET? - BIMCO
As bunker fuel costs have come down from USD 600 per tonnes to USD 330 per tonnes in the past 6 months, much talk about increased ship speed have s ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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