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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 26 December 14
SHIPS FACE LOWER SULPHUR FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN EMISSION CONTROL AREAS FROM 1 JANUARY 2015 - IMO
Ships trading in designated emission control areas will have to use on board fuel oil with a sulphur content of no more than 0.10% from 1 January 2 ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
CAPE DEMAND WAS STILL EXTREMELY SOFT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The performance of the Dry Bulk market, which found itself in desperate search of support for yet another week, has left very little ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly de ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED 48 CENTS IN ONE WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lo ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q4'15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL $ 3.85 IN A MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 2.13 (-3.17%) month on month ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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