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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 30 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT AT -0.2%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Monday, 29 December 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS: REGULATORY RISKS? - CLARKSONS
In recent years, Chinese seaborne coal imports have surged, registering average growth of 67% p.a. between 2009 and 2013 to total 265mt. However, t ...
Monday, 29 December 14
BULK MARKET ENDS YEAR ON SOUR NOTE, SHIPBROKER SEES 'BUMPY ROAD AHEAD' - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2014 was supposed to be the year that the dry bulk market would stage a comeback and a sustainable one for that matter. However, while for the most ...
Monday, 29 December 14
Q1'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $59.42
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.51 (-5.58%) month over month and US$ 0.08 (-0.13%) ...
Monday, 29 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS IMPROVED W-O-W, LOST M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.44 per MT (-2.73%) month over month and gained US$ 0.36 (+0.71%) ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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