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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CLOSED AT $63.47 PMT ON 26 DEC, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.37 (-4. ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
COASTAL ENERGEN (C&O) COMMENCES 1ST UNIT OF 1200 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Coastal Energen, part of the Coal & Oil Group, announced last week the commissioning and commencement of power production at the ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL Q2' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED 1.03% LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 15 DELIVERY PRICE - SGX
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.35 (-2 ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
SHIP PRICES KEEP ON FALLING, SALES COME EARLY FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship prices keep on falling on the back of low freight rates. According to the latest report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, January sales seem ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
INDIA INC TO BENEFIT AS IMPORTED COAL PRICES SET TO FALL - RAHUL PRITHIANI
The Hindu: India‘s coal import volumes are set to rise by over 30 per cent over the next two years to 214 million tonnes in 2015-16, as domes ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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