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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predictin ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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