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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 January 15
2015 IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES FOR THE SHIPPING SECTOR, MOST NOTABLY THE DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the new year has now set foot for real, many are still looking to detect what’s in store for the various shipping markets, with the first ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
SHIPPING MUST ADOPT CAN-DO ATTITUDE IN 2015 - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping needs to adopt a can-do attitude in order to successfully meet the challenges which are likely to come its way in 2015.
Shipping part ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 1.81% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.74 (-1.51%) m ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST W-O-W AND M-O-M, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.52 (-5. ...
Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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