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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 January 15
2015 IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES FOR THE SHIPPING SECTOR, MOST NOTABLY THE DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the new year has now set foot for real, many are still looking to detect what’s in store for the various shipping markets, with the first ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
SHIPPING MUST ADOPT CAN-DO ATTITUDE IN 2015 - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping needs to adopt a can-do attitude in order to successfully meet the challenges which are likely to come its way in 2015.
Shipping part ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 1.81% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.74 (-1.51%) m ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST W-O-W AND M-O-M, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.52 (-5. ...
Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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