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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 January 15
BDI DECLINED 8% ON WEEK; BCI LOST 31%
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its decline in the first week of this year or lost 8 pct week over week. The BDI was closed at 709 points whi ...
Friday, 09 January 15
U.S. EASTERN SPOT STEAM COAL PRICES FELL IN 2014; ROSE IN WEST - EIA
U.S. Eastern spot steam coal prices declined in 2014 compared to 2013 levels because of a decline in steam coal exports.
According to U.S. Ene ...
Friday, 09 January 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 2.2% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 08 January 15
INDONESIA PRESSES ON WITH HIGHER COAL ROYALTY FEE TO BOOST STATE REVENUE - JG
The Indonesian government is pressing on with its plan to raise the royalty charged to coal miners in order to increase state revenue, but the move ...
Wednesday, 07 January 15
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAKE LESS SENSE IN LOWER BUNKER PRICE MARKET, BUT FUEL COSTS ARE BOUND TO RISE AGAIN
The shipping industry entered 2015 on mixed emotions, as a relatively buoyant tanker market is met by a rather lackluster dry bulk market. Still, a ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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