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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 January 15
BDI DECLINED 8% ON WEEK; BCI LOST 31%
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its decline in the first week of this year or lost 8 pct week over week. The BDI was closed at 709 points whi ...
Friday, 09 January 15
U.S. EASTERN SPOT STEAM COAL PRICES FELL IN 2014; ROSE IN WEST - EIA
U.S. Eastern spot steam coal prices declined in 2014 compared to 2013 levels because of a decline in steam coal exports.
According to U.S. Ene ...
Friday, 09 January 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 2.2% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 08 January 15
INDONESIA PRESSES ON WITH HIGHER COAL ROYALTY FEE TO BOOST STATE REVENUE - JG
The Indonesian government is pressing on with its plan to raise the royalty charged to coal miners in order to increase state revenue, but the move ...
Wednesday, 07 January 15
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAKE LESS SENSE IN LOWER BUNKER PRICE MARKET, BUT FUEL COSTS ARE BOUND TO RISE AGAIN
The shipping industry entered 2015 on mixed emotions, as a relatively buoyant tanker market is met by a rather lackluster dry bulk market. Still, a ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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