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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q2 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 8.66% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined by US$ 3.48 (-5.73%) month over month and US$ 2.35 (-3.94%) week ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q1' 2015 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN Q2 & Q4 2015 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 7.21 ...
Monday, 12 January 15
COAL: LOW PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SUPPLY-DRIVEN RECOVERY IN THE MEDIUM TERM - SGX
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices dropped to six-year lows in 2014 driven by persistent oversupply, SGX says in its “ Commodities 2014 - A ye ...
Monday, 12 January 15
FREIGHT MARKET: 2015 FLEET SUPPLY GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CARGO GROWTH - SGX
COALspot.com: The dry bulk freight market was forced to digest a number of negatives in 2014 leading the Baltic Dry Index to fall 66% through the y ...
Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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