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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 January 15
DRY BULK MARKET NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY DECLINE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry bulk market noted another weekly decline on Friday, with the performance of the Capesize market still weighing down on the re ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
COMMODITIES AREN'T PRIMED FOR A REBOUND DURING 2015: SHIPPING COULD BENEFIT FROM LOWER PRICES - ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In the recent past, higher commodity prices were driven by an increase in demand from developing countries, which spelled good news for ship owners ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 46.97 PMT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has fell US$ 1.53 (-3.15 ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.51% LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.56 per MT (-3.0%) month over month and US$ 1.03 (-2.0%) week ove ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
MORE PITFALLS FOR OWNERS LOOKING TO TERMINATE FOR UNPAID HIRE - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is a debatable point whether or not the obligation to pay hire under a time charter is a condition of the contract or ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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