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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 January 15
DRY BULK MARKET NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY DECLINE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry bulk market noted another weekly decline on Friday, with the performance of the Capesize market still weighing down on the re ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
COMMODITIES AREN'T PRIMED FOR A REBOUND DURING 2015: SHIPPING COULD BENEFIT FROM LOWER PRICES - ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In the recent past, higher commodity prices were driven by an increase in demand from developing countries, which spelled good news for ship owners ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 46.97 PMT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has fell US$ 1.53 (-3.15 ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.51% LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.56 per MT (-3.0%) month over month and US$ 1.03 (-2.0%) week ove ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
MORE PITFALLS FOR OWNERS LOOKING TO TERMINATE FOR UNPAID HIRE - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is a debatable point whether or not the obligation to pay hire under a time charter is a condition of the contract or ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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