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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
Sunday, 18 January 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 4.51 pct week on week on Friday 16, January 2015. The BDI closed at 741 points on this Friday after gaining arou ...
Friday, 16 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.3% W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
PANAMAX : MARKET CONTINUE ON LOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
On a general basis we can say that rates are softening in both hemispheres. Although for some specific trades we can see premiums being ach ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
LOW CASH COSTS, GOOD LIQUIDITY HELP ASIAN OIL COMPANIES IN PRICE ROUT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that rated oil and gas production companies in Asia can comfortably operate under low oil prices for some time given their gener ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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