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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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