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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
PANAMAX MARKET MOVED SIDEWAYS OVERALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment in which the week prior ended carried on through-out last week as well, the end of which marked the first posi ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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