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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 January 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTINUE TO SLIDE M-O-M; ROSE W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.79 (-1.33%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 2.10&nb ...
Sunday, 25 January 15
PANAMAX FREIGHT RATES STILL FALLING
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly down this week to 720 points. The BDI lost 2.83 pct week on week.
The cape index continued its upward trend ...
Friday, 23 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 17 UP 2.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
PANAMAX: A SOFTER TONE AND OVERALL A SLUGGISH MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has experienced yet another week with slow activity and softening rates in both hemispheres, broker Fearnleys AS ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
BUMI RESOURCES POSTS NET INCOME OF $13.3 MILLION 9M-2014
COALspot.com: Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest coal miner, reported today that, the company has recorded a net income of $13.3 million for ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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