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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 January 15
CAPES CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD MOVEMENT LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market displayed a mirror performance of that of the week prior, with the Capesize market correcting further upwards and ...
Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q1 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 47.87 FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 23
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 gain week over week and declined month on month.
The Q1 swap has decline US$ 0.9 ...
Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP 4.5% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.28 per MT (-0.54%) month over month and increased US$ 1.23 ( ...
Monday, 26 January 15
OVERSUPPLY, AMPLE STOCKPILES, AND LACKLUSTER UNDERLYING STEEL DEMAND KEPT COKING COAL PRICES LOW IN 2014
COALspot.com: Coking coal prices (FOB & CFR) fell 15% and 18% respectively during the year, amidst persistent oversupply, ample inventory and s ...
Monday, 26 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY Q2 COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has fell ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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