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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 January 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED 65.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CAN BULKER CONVERSIONS SPOIL THE TANKER MARKET'S PARTY? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Oversupply of tonnage has always been in the back of the head of ship owners when it comes to taking advantage of favorable market conditions. As s ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CAPE MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LOW DEMAND AND LOW COMMODITY PRICES
Handy
Supramax rates are heading south with slipping rates all across the block. USG activity is slow with mid-week levels in the mid 8.000s, Fea ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
With most traders having returned to action from year end festivities, we have already seen signs of activity in the specialized product markets. L ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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