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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 February 15
INDONESIA'S ADARO ENERGY PRODUCED 56.21 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2014; UP 8% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, has increased coal production by 8% to 56.21 million tonnes (Mt) from both ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PICKS UP W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.81 (-1.36%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 0.18&nb ...
Monday, 02 February 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 280K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 280,000 MT of Sub-bituminous coal coa ...
Sunday, 01 February 15
INDONESIA-TO-INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall reached lowest levels since 1986 this week.
The BDI declined 15.55 pct to 608 points on Friday 30, Ja ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CONTANGO AND TANKERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Like an invitation to a dance, the word contango may have some people flustered, but for tanker owners this market phenome ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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