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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 February 15
ULTRAMAX LEVELS FROM INDIA TO CHINA IN THE MID US$ 5000'S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Despite the overall weak sentiment, there is a scent of optimism in the Atlantic market for ppt dates. Continent is still struggling with o ...
Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its producti ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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