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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.28% TO $ 56.92 W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.93 (-3.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0 ...
Sunday, 08 February 15
BDI FELL CONTINUOUSLY HIT A THREE DECADES LOW
COALspot.com: This week Baltic Exchange Dry Freight Index (BDI) fell continuously hit a three decades low.
The BDI continuously fell and was d ...
Friday, 06 February 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 1.1% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 20.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 06 February 15
SHIP DAMAGED BY FIRE CAUSED BY PIRATES FOUND TO BE CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS - TAYLOR WESSING
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The High Court was asked to determine a number of preliminary issues, including whether a vessel was a constructive total ...
Thursday, 05 February 15
BDI HAS NOW FALLEN A LEVEL CLOSE TO THE INDEX'S HISTORIC LOW - INTERMODAL
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and in this instance just one look at the tables above is enough to understand the great pressure the ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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