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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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