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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 February 15
DRY BULK OWNERS SCRAP MORE VESSELS, AS MARKET REACHES HISTORICAL LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has reached historical lows this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) now trading at levels below operating expense levels for ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCHED DOWN 1.44% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 62.92 pe ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY DRAGS ON, AS OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners appear to be waiting for lower prices in their dealings with Asian shipyards, as the dry bulk market is at historical lows. According t ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE : STABILIZING CAPE MARKET HARDLY HELPED SENTIMENT
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, while the stabilizing Cape market hardly helped sentiment.
Greece based s ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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