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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 15 February 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUALLY DIPPED IN RED
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index continues its decline and fell 5.18 pct to 530 points week on week due to falling commodity prices and declining ...
Saturday, 14 February 15
SHALE GAS AND TIGHT OIL ARE COMMERCIALLY PRODUCED IN JUST FOUR COUNTRIES - EIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The United States, Canada, China, and Argentina are currently the only four countries in the world that are producing com ...
Friday, 13 February 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 10% DECLINE
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 13 February 15
SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED SHIP OWNERS SQUEEZED OUT OF THE MARKET ON CRASHING DRY BULK MARKET AND EUROZONE CRISIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Financing issues have started to tighten the noose in the throats of small and medium-size ship owners, who were already facing problems over the p ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
CAPESIZE: THE BEST DESCRIPTION FOR THE MARKET IS, FLAT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The handy and supra market is also being affected by the marginal volume of activity in the commodity sales. We see a small upturn in the T ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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