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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 February 15
FOB SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP 8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 3.58 (+8.00%) month o ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
Q2' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $63.45; $ 1.85 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month, week on week and day on day.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 16 February 15
COAL MINING SLUMP A BLESSING IN DISGUISE - THE JAKARTA POST
The growth of the coal-mining industry, which has diminished in the last two years, is expected to slump even further this year following weakening ...
Monday, 16 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.31 per MT (+2.59%) week over week and US$ 4.35 (+9.13%) month on ...
Monday, 16 February 15
Q2' 15 - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 5.22% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 2.88 (+5.22%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.08 (+1.90% ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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